India’s Supply Chains in a World at War: Dr. Gautam Desiraju on Geopolitics & Resilience

Jeff Kavanaugh:

According to the UN Center for Trade and Development, more than 80% of global trade in goods moves through just a handful of supply chain choke points. In fact, a disruption at either the Suez Canal or the Taiwan Strait could wipe out over 2 trillion within weeks. Supply chains aren’t just logistics, they’re geopolitics, and they’re shaping the future of nations, which is what renowned expert Dr. Gautam Desiraju will explore with me today. Welcome to the Infosys Knowledge Institute podcast, where we talk with experts reshaping business and society, with bold ideas and deep insights.

I’m Jeff Kavanaugh, and today we’re joined by one of India’s most distinguished scientists and thought leaders, Dr. Gautam Desiraju. He’s authored more than 475 research papers, has over 80,000 citations, served as president of the International Union of Crystallography, and recently co-authored a timely new book: India’s Supply Chains in a World at War.

Dr. Desiraju, welcome.

Dr. Gautam Desiraju:

Thank you, Jeff. It's a real pleasure for me to be here today. And here is an advance copy of the book itself.

Jeff Kavanaugh:

Your book explores seven strategic sectors where India’s supply chains are being reshaped by conflict, economic volatility, and geopolitical maneuvering. What was the spark behind writing this now?

Dr. Gautam Desiraju:

The spark, as it were, I think was my observation of the geopolitical situation in the world. So it seemed to me that these global disruptions were happening or they were going to happen. It seemed to me that we were at the brink of something. I didn't know exactly what it was because I started thinking about this book around 1921, 2021 at the height of the COVID pandemic. Because especially during the COVID time, the imports into China had stopped at that time and there was a massive buildup of ships and empty containers which had brought things to China. They were unable to unload and then nobody wants to send empty containers back from China to America. So the whole thing had become a mess.

Jeff Kavanaugh:

You argue that supply chains aren’t just about moving goods efficiently. They’re about resilience, power, even civilizational survival. Can you explain why this shift in perspective matters for global leaders?

Dr. Gautam Desiraju:

It matters in a very big way and I think the global leaders... Biden, Trump, Modi, Xi, and Putin have grasped this very very well. It is about resilience now. And I think it took COVID to make us move from efficiency to resilience. COVID in many ways has changed the way in which all of us in the world think about ourselves. We've gone as far as supply chains are concerned from a situation where originally it was just in time. Now it is just in case. Jeff, there are no friends and enemies anymore. There are only interests. And each of these nations, countries, empires, whatever you call them, they're going to act in their self-interest primarily and they're going to view other nations from the point of view of their self-interest. And as far as possible, the big countries, I call these the big four, they are going to look at it actually only in this way. So, say China and India may come together on something, tomorrow America and India will come together on something else. It doesn't mean that these countries are really friendly with each other. It just so happens that for that particular circumstance, it is better for both countries if they get together. I think this is where the real change has happened and if one thinks a little bit more about it, one appreciates that we're beginning to get away from the rules-based order, which was put in place by the US after the Second World War. So gradually, I mean, this is not going to be a sudden breaking away from the rules-based order, but it's fraying at the edges now.

Jeff Kavanaugh:

You talk about “entanglement among empires.” Love that phrase. India has historically balanced between multiple great powers. How is that history informing today’s supply chain strategy?

Dr. Gautam Desiraju:

India has always been a bridge between the East and the West and possibly the colonial era also helped this in its own way. But if you go back earlier in Indian history, India has always been comfortable balancing itself between other great powers like China, Japan, Persia, the Middle East and Russia. I don't think this is very uncomfortable for us today. Maybe in the 70, 80 years after World War II, with the American rules-based order, we couldn't do too much of this. But we also, in a small way, went for the non-alignment route, where we did not place ourselves uniquely in the Russian or the Soviet or the American camp. So, multipolarity is not a strange thing for us and it also goes in with the civilizational aspect of our country.

Jeff Kavanaugh:

Alright, this all sounds intriguing for say, a foreign affairs article, but what does this mean for business leaders? If you’re running a global enterprise, how should you view India’s role in supply chains one, two, five years from now?

Dr. Gautam Desiraju:

One thing I would tell business leaders, say in America, is to deal with India on a case by case basis. If India finds that collaborating with a big leader in American business, they will do it wholeheartedly. But one shouldn't mean that cooperation in one venture will necessarily mean cooperation in the next venture. It again comes back to the fact that, again because of our history, as a country and as a people and as a government, we are very wary of making long-term commitments because we've suffered because of that during the colonial era.

Jeff Kavanaugh:

You’ve had an extraordinary career in science, structural chemistry, crystal engineering, and now you’re bridging into geopolitics and policy. What’s the connection?

Dr. Gautam Desiraju:

This is an easy question because crystal engineering is a study of complex systems. And the fact that when you put two molecules together and then when you put three molecules together and when you put four molecules together in a crystal, the ground rules become different. It's just like two countries, three countries, four countries. So putting two molecules together is a bipolar world. It goes in a certain way. You bring in a third country, the behavior of the first two starts changing. And then you put in the fourth molecule, the behavior of the first three starts changing from what it was before. So in crystal engineering, basically it's a study in complexity. And this is exactly the case in geopolitics and policy, the new geopolitics, where we have to deal not with just one country, but with, say, four empires. So the transition from crystal engineering to geopolitics is both are the same study of complex systems that’s why I am very comfortable with this subject.

Jeff Kavanaugh:

You’ve also written on constitutional history and civilizational thought. How do you connect India’s deeper narrative with modern supply chains?

Dr. Gautam Desiraju:

Diversity is definitely a strength in our country, no doubt about it. And we are also patient. We've lived through 250 years of colonial rule. we have, rapidly we've forgotten it. Actually we are on pretty good terms with the United Kingdom today. So I think this is something that American scholars, people in organizations like yours and so on, should start looking at India a little bit more because now economically we've become important. First appreciate that we are not the same as China. And then to look at us, the strange new beast that has come on the scene and start thinking a little bit about how it has been ticking for so long, 5,000 years. It's not a short time period. How it continues ticking even today. You know, two, three hundred years, sometimes we don't care much. And in the Hindi language, which is the major language that is spoken in our country, the word for yesterday and tomorrow is exactly the same. Now, I think that tells something.

Jeff Kavanaugh:

Dr. Desiraju, one theme we explore often at the Knowledge Institute is the power of insights, the design, research, analysis, interpretation, and adoption of the patterns that others overlook. in your view, what role do insights play in understanding India’s supply chains, and how can business and policy leaders use those insights to convert uncertainty and complexity to their advantage?

Dr. Gautam Desiraju:

The insights will come when you have read enough. And I do believe that American scholars and foundations and institutes like yours can invest a little more time and research into studying us a little bit. A lot of study has been done about China. Now India has suddenly come into the scene and I'm already sure that people have started studying India. I think the insights will come naturally I have outlined a bit of these things already. So it means we can readily get into things like rare earths, semiconductors, fertilizers and pharmaceuticals. Our science is good. It's just that we think different. So if one gets into the minds of Indians, then I think it will be easier. Right now I think maybe foreigners feel that they can't predict us so easily.

Jeff Kavanaugh:

Getting more personal, how do you develop insights, and how do you use them in your work as a thought leader?

Dr. Gautam Desiraju:

Insights I tell you they come in four stages. First there is a deep feeling deep within you which you can't articulate that there is something going on. That's all. It's just a feeling. And you should know what feeling not to ignore. And then you get into the second stage when you actually begin to see something. I call these four voices. So, the first voice is just feeling. The second voice is that you start seeing something which is a little more concrete than just feeling something. When you go through that stage and you go through the third stage, which is where you start articulating these what you see into some kind of a plan or a scheme or something that is more structured. And finally the fourth voice is when you actually are able to announce it to the whole world like in the form of a book or something. So it's only the fourth voice that this book represents. There were already three hidden voices before this thing happened. And sometimes you know, you stay at one of these voices for a greater length of time. This is all quite normal and I think it's okay. It's not that you rush through all this and suddenly one day you get, there is no eureka moment, It goes gradually in stages. And if you are open-minded as a scientist, as a business leader, as a politician, you learn how not to ignore these three hidden voices.

Jeff Kavanaugh:

Gautam, thank you so much for a thought-provoking discussion. As a reminder, Gautam’s new book is called India’s Supply Chains in a World at War.

I’m Jeff Kavanaugh. from the Infosys Knowledge Institute, and until next time, keep learning and keep sharing.